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The Bulgarian real estate market in 2015

2015-12-21   |  Polina Stoykova MRICS, Managing Director & Head of Research

The real estate market in Bulgaria entered into a new stage оf its development in 2015.

The confidence in the property market returned, the number of completed deals and property prices increased. Construction activity grew and the result is twice as many issued new construction permits and twice as many newly started buildings. There are more and more deals happening off-plan. More investors are now turning to the property market and they are also interested in rental returns that properties can offer. Our data shows that currently rental return from properties in Sofia is around 5.4% and in the most wanted districts and newly-build complexes it exceeds 6% annually.

These facts sound as from a market report from some 10 years ago but there is one essential difference. The revival of the Bulgarian property market for the first time for more than a decade is now driven mostly by internal factors and domestic demand. This means that the real estate market at the moment is much closer to its fundaments which is a good prerequisite for its sustainable development in the coming years.

All this is a result of a number of macroeconomic factors like the faster GDP growth, the increase of the average salary, the decrease of unemployment, the lower mortgage interest rates (to their historical lowest point at present), present real estate prices as from 10 years ago, good price-to-income ratio which leads to properties being much more affordable now compared to the period of the boom. There is a shortage of high-quality residential properties, a need for new construction, a continuous migration to the big cities, as well as an increase in the confidence in the property market and more completed deals as an investment.

For the first time in 7 years there is a simultaneous positive effect of so many factors.

Perspectives for 2016

Our expectations are this upturn of the property market to continue in 2016 with an additional increase of number of completed deals and an increase in property prices in Sofia and big cities between 4 and 7%.

Demand will be directed mainly to Sofia and other big cities, as well as to the vacation properties in ski and beach resorts which now offer the best price in whole Europe.

The number of purchases with investment purpose will grow since the confidence in the Bulgarian property market is recovering both locally and internationally and we see indications for return of the foreign investors.

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